With half the year over, BlackRock's commentary delivers an overview for the rest of the year. Read the excerpt here, or download the full BlackRock Midyear 2016 Golobal Investment Outlook report.
Markets are torn between anxiety over the fallout from the UK’s vote to exit the European Union and the prospect of a strengthening U.S. economy. Downside risks to global growth point to a U.S. Federal Reserve on hold — and reinforce our view of low global interest rates for long.
Our key views:
- Outlook Forum: At a mid-June gathering of some 90 BlackRock portfolio managers and executives, we had vigorous debates on the outlook for a rebound in U.S. inflation, the prospect of a turnaround in beaten-down emerging markets (EMs) and the woes afflicting the global financial sector.
- Themes: We updated our three themes for this year: 1) We are living in a low-return world; 2) Monetary policy has been a key driver of asset prices — but its effectiveness looks to be waning; 3) We see more volatility ahead as Brexit-related anxiety weighs on Europe’s economy and the business cycle matures.
- Risks: We see geopolitical uncertainties and a renewed rise in the U.S. dollar as near-term risks, and populism as a medium-term challenge for trade, growth and markets. A potential surprise: a rally in risk assets prompted by investors shifting out of cash and low-yielding assets in search of higher returns.
- Markets: We have turned more positive on most fixed income due to elevated geopolitical risks and easy monetary policy in a low-growth world. We like income, including investment-grade credit and EM debt. We are cautious on equities, particularly in Europe, given the turn in risk sentiment and poor profit growth. We prefer dividend growers and quality companies. We like gold as a portfolio diversifier.
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