Eagle Asset Management's Richard Skeppstrom provides his colorful perspective on the recent market events including Greece, China and his candid friends.“Confused situation, imperfect advice
One of my closest friends reached out to me on Father’s Day to say he thinks I am a better father than stock-picker. I was touched. And then more recently, another very dear friend said he enjoyed my writing but wished I’d say something. Lovely friends. Most folks just don’t care enough to give you such thinly veiled criticisms.
Honestly though, the predictions business, if it can be called that, is more pricks than petals these days. Take the Greek situation. They’ll never be able to pay their debts (creditors and debtors alike are to blame, as they always are); the economy is crippled; and the banks are hopelessly insolvent. Most everyone (without savings in Greek banks) agrees Greece needs at least a few semesters off from the euro. The banks would need support and so would the new drachma but experience suggests that they would regain competitiveness in a couple of years. They would default on their debt but that’s inevitable no matter what they do. By the way, that IS the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) playbook but the Germans won’t agree to any concessions for fear of political consequences at home and follow-on contagion in other overly indebted countries. The Greeks even elected and recently overwhelmingly reaffirmed, through referendum, a government that promised Greek sovereignty, reduced austerity and debt relief. And what did everyone just agree to (most reluctantly)? No relief, more austerity and a loss of sovereignty. For some in Greece, this is the easy way out but for many, I fear, it will eventually lead to rage. In my mind, the situation is now less stable and perhaps even combustible but the markets actually seemed to like it for a few days. Gun-to-the-head diplomacy with a sister nation is ominous. If the citizens of other member nations weren’t already anxious about a loss of sovereignty, they likely are now. This frustrating episode is far from over. All I can do is shrug.
And the Chinese “situation” is much more important to global growth but no less confusing. Some grouse that our markets are rigged – 0 percent interest rates forcing folks into riskier assets – but you have to take your hat off to the Chinese. They aren’t shy at all when they want to rig something." To read the full commentary, download below.
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