Money manager Macquarie Allegiance's February newsletter details why they think Treasury yields will continue to increase, especially in the 10 year Treasury. "Our analysis shows that the improving trend of the economy has been pressuring Treasury yields higher. The current macro momentum suggests we are heading for the third test of 4.0% on the 10Y yield in this cycle. However, inflation pressures in the US remain low despite the added pressure coming from surging commodity prices. We conclude that the persistence of a large negative output gap is helping to contain inflation pressures."
Money manager Macquarie Allegiance's February newsletter details why they think Treasury yields will continue to increase, especially in the 10 year Treasury. "Our analysis shows that the improving trend of the economy has been pressuring Treasury yields higher. The current macro momentum suggests we are heading for the third test of 4.0% on the 10Y yield in this cycle. However, inflation pressures in the US remain low despite the added pressure coming from surging commodity prices. We conclude that the persistence of a large negative output gap is helping to contain inflation pressures."