Money Managers continue to reflect on the market volatility from last week, lessons learned, and consider what's to come.
This week's post is another compilation of articles from three different money managers. Lord Abbett's day-by-day recap of last week's market ups and downs. Senior Portfolio Manager Bob Doll shares Nuveen's outlook on market volatility and other factors investors should consider, while Federated Investors focuses in on dividend investing in 2018.
Volatility: Behind Last Week’s Market Mayhem
Short-term returns may be mixed, but over the long term, spikes in volatility historically have represented a buying opportunity when the fundamental backdrop is as strong as it is today.
Last week’s equity rout largely reflected overblown fears about inflation and turmoil in VIX-related trades, not actual fundamentals. Following a week when the Dow Jones Industrial Average (Dow) swung 1,000 points or more on every day but one, investors and investment professionals alike are searching for answers.
What caused the rout? And is there more to come? In this week's commentary, Lord Abbett reviews the events of last week day-by-day, starting with the February 2nd release of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) January 2018 employment report and the volatility that followed.
To read Lord Abbett's complete commentary, click here.
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Nuveen Asset Management
After a 10% Correction, 10 Thoughts About Where We Are Heading
The initial market pressure that began two Fridays ago intensified last week, driving stock prices sharply lower amid intensely rising volatility. What started as concerns about overvaluation, emerging inflation threats and rising bond yields spiraled into a near-panic selloff as technical and structural market conditions exacerbated the slide. The Dow Jones Industrial Average experienced two separate 1,000 point declines last week, the S&P 500 500 Index lost 5.1% for the week and has now declined 12% from peak to trough. While we think the worst of the correction may be behind us, messy market conditions may continue. And the long-term outlook is growing more complicated.
Highlights:
- We believe the worst of the correction may be over, but also think we could see additional sharp swings in the weeks to come.
- Fundamentals remain strong for the economy and for equity markets.
- We think equities will see gains for all of 2018, but investing conditions are growing more complicated.
To continue reading the commentary, click here.
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Federated Investors
What's Driving Dividends in 2018?
As investors contemplate a potentially more turbulent year ahead, Federated Investors conducted a Q & A with two of their portfolio managers regarding their outlook for dividend-focused strategies in the U.S. and abroad. Review an excerpt below:
Q: What is the outlook for dividend investing in 2018?
A: On an absolute basis, the outlook is very positive for a number reasons. Impacts from deregulation and tax cuts are supportive. Another aspect of tax reform is the prospect for repatriation of cash that has been parked overseas. Each of these factors supports companies’ abilities to cover their dividend obligations and increase future dividend payments.
However, on a relative basis, there's a slight caveat. If we see a continuation of a "risk-on" trade in the U.S. market, it is likely that dividend investments—while still positive—would lag the more growth-oriented sectors such as Tech, Information Technology and Consumer Discretionary. Following a year of historically low volatility, the recent pullback is a reminder that markets can and likely will become somewhat bumpier in the years ahead. Volatility is a normal part of investing. Stocks selected for their high-quality income historically have experienced less volatility during periods of market turbulence. Their relative stability has been attributable to their strong, mature business profiles, along with their solid balance sheets and ample free cash flow generation. Such reliable business models have enabled these companies to prudently increase their dividends over time.
Q: What about prospects for international dividends?
We have a positive outlook for 2018. One reason is the solid potential for global GDP growth. The International Monetary Fund has raised its GDP forecast again for this year. That's important because large, mature businesses that pay high dividends typically grow their companies and dividends more or less in line with the rate of GDP. Also, international markets have lagged the U.S. in a return to normal economic growth. This presents opportunity for U.S. investors in foreign equities.
To continue reading the Q & A, click here.
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If last week's market volatility left you feeling shakey about your investment strategy, our team of experienced, professional weatlh managers is here to help. Whether you're looking for a sounding board, or a partner to help you design an investment strategy you can feel confident about, please contact us at 1-800-541-7774 or by email: wealth@wrapmanager.com.
