Wealth Management Blog | WrapManager | Churchill Management Group

Churchill Management Group – Is the Emperor Wearing Clothes?

Posted by WrapManager's Investment Policy Committee

July 31, 2014

Churchill Management Group – Is the Emperor Wearing Clothes?

“Cautiously bullish” is how money manager Churchill Management Group describes their tactical portfolios at present. Their latest commentary addresses the concern that the market may not be as wonderful as we are told.

“Given that we are well past the “buy zone” off the bottom, at this stage we are examining our indicators for signs of a top, or when it will be time to protect.

Fundamentally, the story has changed very little. The key driver has been the historically low interest rates causing a lift in asset values. No matter how bad U.S. economic fundamentals come in, the Fed’s ability to keep interest rates low works as the trump card that keeps investors in the stock market and prices moving higher. In simple terms, many investors are frustrated by the low returns on other investment alternatives, such as bonds, and feel forced into the stock market in hopes of increasing total returns. The laws of supply and demand then take hold, and with the increased demand for stocks, prices go up.“

Download Churchill's Full Commentary Here

Get Free Research Reports on Churchill Management

[+] Read More

Churchill Management Group

Churchill Maximum Growth Strategy: Risk-Driven Investing

June 24, 2014

There are two goals of the Churchill Management Group's Maximum Growth Strategy: achieve superior returns when it sees low-risk opportunities in the markets, and protect capital when risks in the stock market are deemed high. In an attempt to maximize returns, the portfolio managers will increase equity exposure and use leveraging techniques when they sense “top-down” low risk environments. In an attempt to protect capital, they may move all or a portion of equity exposure to short-term fixed income instruments or cash equivalents when risk in the stock market is deemed high. If you’re looking for a tactical money manager strategy to manage risk in your portfolio, the Churchill Maximum Growth Strategy is one option to consider. To quickly compare Churchill to other tactical money managers and to learn more about the approach, click here.1 [+] Read More

Churchill Management Group’s February Market Perspective

March 6, 2014

In their February commentary, Churchill Management Group explains why they reduced equity exposure in their tactical strategies. “Starting with the first trading day of 2014, the market began a sharp correction. While an accommodative Fed has continued to fuel the stock market, recent Taper-talk (the reduction of monetary stimulus added to the economy) combined with international currency worries gave the market brief concerns. At one point during January, the Dow Jones Industrial Average had fallen 7.5% off its highs. The market has regained footing since then, although volatility has also increased. Knowing that the market is forever cyclical, the question is whether the stock market is in a Topping phase or did it just need to catch its breath before continuing the long Bull Market that began almost five years ago?” [+] Read More

Is the Market Heading Toward Another Bubble? - Churchill Management

November 6, 2013

Churchill Management Group's November commentary looks back at past market bubbles and compares them to the current market environment. "Generally after a bubble has occurred, it takes many decades for human behavior to rise up to another extreme. Amazingly, thanks to the investing public jumping back into the market, it seems possible that the NASDAQ is starting to look a little bubble-like barely a decade after its last Bubble peaked. We are calling this a “DOUBLE BUBBLE”." Download Churchill's Full Commentary Here Get Free Research Reports on Churchill Management [+] Read More

Churchill Management Group - "Sell on the Rumor, Buy on the News"

September 3, 2013

Churchill Management Group believes the odds of a stock market correction, defined by them as 10-20%, have increased. Their latest commentary explains their thinking, and addresses five news stories to expect this fall. "The above title is an old practical adage of Wall Street that describes how markets get rattled on the rumor of events to come and tend to settle down after the news has been revealed. As we go through the maturing phase of the bull market that began four-and-a-half years ago, it is a statement to keep in mind as the news coming in September is set to be expansive and emotional. On the docket are..." Download Churchill's Full Commentary Here Get Free Research Reports on Churchill Management [+] Read More

Churchill Management Group - Worried About the Big Picture

July 2, 2013

Churchill Management Group's June investment commentary draws parallels between the strategies used by central bankers and the government today and during the 1920s. [+] Read More

Still Deleveraging - Churchill Management Group

June 20, 2012

"As it has for the past several years, the crisis in Europe continues to dominate the World Press. It continues to be a ping pong match of bad news followed by hope followed by bad news and so on. As we have stated, we believe the real crisis is not that the banks in Europe are going to go bust, but rather that Europe will become a "house divided" and the European Union will fail. It appears Central Banks and Eurozone countries have ample funds to save the failing Euro banks, but it also appears likely the end result of this crisis will be the European Union of Countries falling apart as they find it impossible to come to a mutual agreement." Download Churchill’s Full Commentary Here Get Free Research Reports about Churchill Management Group [+] Read More

Choppy Markets Continue - Churchill Management Group

November 5, 2011

Churchill Management Group’s latest commentary focuses on the market rallies and weak technical indicators. “It continues to appear we are in that choppy period. The risk of being whipsawed during short-term rallies is high, so we will want to proceed with caution to ensure that the table is set for a sustainable run that will have legs and not just one that is bouncing around within a trading range.” Download Churchill’s Full Commentary Here Get Free Research Reports about Churchill Management Group [+] Read More

Secular Bear Market Until After 2012 Election - Churchill

August 16, 2011

Churchill Management Group explains why they believe we are most likely in a bear market and how they plan to position themselves accordingly. "We continue to believe that the Secular Bear market in stocks, which began back in 2000, will not end until after the Presidential Election in November of 2012. The Secular unwinding does not mean that there can't be a great Bull Market run between now and its conclusion, as we have seen in 2003 and 2009. It just means the U.S. economy remains in the process of unwinding the excesses of the previous decades, and it still has more work to do." Download Churchill’s Full Commentary Here Get Free Research Reports about Churchill Management Group [+] Read More

Churchill Management Group - This Is a Very Normal Correction

June 22, 2011

Money manager Churchill Management Group reviews the current market correction and their top-down indicators, which remain mostly bullish. The history of the unwinding of a secular bear market is also explored, comparing economic similarities between the 1930s and today. "If history repeats itself as we expect, it should come with the "buying opportunity of a lifetime" that we have referred to in the past." Download the Full Churchill Commentary Here Get Free Research Reports about Churchill Management Group [+] Read More