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Yield Curve Inversion and Recession Threats

Posted by Doug Hutchinson | CFA®, Director of Research and Trading

August 15, 2019

Concerns over an inverted yield curve combined with the threat of higher tariffs around the globe have created some equity market volatility over the past few weeks.  The ups and downs of equity market volatility can certainly be unnerving for investors, but volatility in and of itself is not necessarily a bad thing nor is it necessarily a signal of an upcoming recession.

In fact, since 1980 the S&P 500 has suffered an average intra-year decline of 13.9% while the market has had positive returns in 29 of those 39 years.1

 

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market perspective stock market performance Economic Indicators Market Volatility Yield Curve