Things didn’t always go as expected in 2016. The U.S. election, U.K. Brexit vote and the Fed’s U-turn on rates took many investors by surprise.
Yet worries about volatility proved unfounded. Some asset classes posted solid gains, defying pessimism and showing that opportunity can arise despite the many real risks.
With that in mind, we asked our investment managers to identify what could happen if things go right in 2017...
- Phase Shift: From Monetary to Fiscal
More and more, the world’s central banks are concluding that the effectiveness of monetary stimulus may be waning — with greater fiscal stimulus needed to truly jumpstart growth. Trump’s campaign comments favoring infrastructure spending, if realized, could mark a turning point in the monetary-to-fiscal shift.
- Populist Positives
The past year saw more voters and governments turning inward, with globalism losing ground to localism. But one positive outcome of this populist surge could be a renewed interest in domestic investment worldwide.
- Capital Deployment:
Low rates and cheap borrowing have encouraged companies to buy back their own shares and buy each other, rather than investing in the productive capacity of their own business. Yet as rates go up, cash may again be deployed toward increasing future capacity and productivity.