Wealth Management Blog | WrapManager | Nuveen Asset Management (3)

Nuveen Decodes Mixed Economic Signals

Posted by WrapManager's Investment Policy Committee

June 22, 2017

Economic Data and Confidence Levels Offer Mixed Signals

In recent months, we have seen increased softness in so-called “hard” economic data, including retail sales, automotive production and employment. At the same time, “soft” data such as business confidence measures point to an expectation of economic acceleration. In our experience, these disconnects typically result in a move in the soft data, suggesting confidence measures could be due for a setback. Should this happen, it could provide a headwind for equity prices.

Key Points:

Economic data has trailed off in recent weeks, but we see reasons to expect a renewed acceleration.
In the near-term, confidence levels could diminish, providing a headwind for stocks.
Nevertheless, we believe it makes sense to maintain a pro-growth investment stance.

Read an excerpt of the complete commentary below, or download the entire investment commentary as a PDF . [+] Read More

Economic/Market Outlook Nuveen Asset Management Money Manager Commentary

Nuveen Evaluates Investor Skepticism

June 1, 2017

Global Equity Prices Should Trend Unevenly Higher Many investors remain uneasy about the global macro backdrop, despite accelerating global economic growth, low inflation, accommodative global monetary policy and solid corporate earnings. Concerns about possible recession and deflation remain, and many investors are continuing a flight to quality, which is causing global bond yields to remain at exceptionally low levels. At the same time, disappointing U.S. economic data and mounting concerns over political instability in Washington, D.C. have held back equity prices and the value of the U.S. dollar. Read an excerpt of the complete commentary below, or download the entire investment commentary as a PDF. [+] Read More

Nuveen Believes the Political Backdrop Can Support Growth

April 12, 2017

Economic Growth, Not Politics, Is Probably the Biggest Risk For some time, we have argued that equities and other risk assets looked overextended following their strong run-up since the election. In recent weeks, equities have been trading sideways and government bond prices have recovered. More than politics, the economy probably presents a more probable roadblock for equities. We think economic sentiment may be too high and elevated confidence may make investors vulnerable to downside economic surprises. To be sure, we are not expecting a significant economic slowdown, but the nearly non-stop pace of positive economic data is unlikely to continue. At some point, a setback will likely be triggered by a manufacturing decline, soft oil prices, weakening data from China or some other factor, which could spark a risk-off phase. Nevertheless, we remain constructive in the medium and long-term toward risk assets, but are growing increasingly cautious about the short-term outlook. Read an excerpt of the complete commentary below, or download the entire investment commentary as a PDF. [+] Read More

Nuveen Observes Equities Sag as Political Optimism Returns to Earth

April 5, 2017

Where Can Investors Find Value in These Markets? Stocks experienced their largest one-week decline since the election, as the S&P 500 Index fell 1.4%.1 Most losses occurred on Tuesday when it became clear that the Republican health care plan was facing trouble, signaling that President Trump’s pro-growth economic agenda could falter. Small cap stocks, financials and industrials fared the worst last week, with utilities and REITs gaining ground. Treasury prices rallied for a second straight week, while the U.S. dollar fell for the third week. Read an excerpt of the complete commentary below, or download the entire investment commentary as a PDF. [+] Read More

Nuveen: Where to Find Value in 2017

March 6, 2017

Where Can Investors Find Value in These Markets? The recent behavior of equity and bond markets creates a conundrum for investors. Equity markets are rallying based largely on expectations for stronger economic growth, while bond yields have been falling and seem priced for economic stagnation. Which signal is correct? The economic environment may grow more complicated in time, but for now we expect acceleration to continue. Read an excerpt of the complete commentary below, or download the entire investment commentary as a PDF. [+] Read More

Nuveen Weekly Commentary January 2017

January 24, 2017

Investors Await Clarity on Tax and Spending Policies Equity markets were mixed last week, with the S&P 500 Index down fractionally.1 Investors grew more wary about President-elect Trump’s increasing scrutiny of specific corporate policies and a possible push forhigher tariffs. The health care sector suffered due to drug pricing concerns, while retail sectors were hurt by generally disappointing earnings results. Read an excerpt of the complete commentary below, or the entire weekly investment commentary as a PDF. [+] Read More

Nuveen Weekly Commentary December 2016

December 19, 2016

Investors Focus on Positives, Ignoring Negatives Investor sentiment remained skewed positive last week, helping equity markets rally sharply. The S&P 500 Index surged 3.1%, as the focus remained on prospects for better economic growth, tax reform and potential fiscal stimulus in 2017. For the week, small caps and financials led the way, while health care stocks lagged. Read an excerpt of the complete commentary below, or view the entire weekly investment commentary as a PDF. [+] Read More