WrapManager's Wealth Management Blog

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The Contrarian Nature of Bearish Forecasts

Posted by Kevin Roche | Vice President Investments

October 19, 2016

There seems this growing feeling that the market is on shaky ground. As an investor, you may feel it too: the presidential election is unique to the point of being wild, Europe appears to be in disarray, corporate profits have seen better days, GDP growth in the U.S. has been lower than average.

Perhaps that is why a recent Bloomberg survey of forecasters said they expect the S&P 500 to finish the year 1% lower. They cited some of the concerns mentioned above, but also pointed to negative sentiment tied to rising interest rates, elevated stock valuations, and the aging business cycle.1 The question for investors is: is it time to rethink portfolio strategy, perhaps favoring a defensive posture?

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